When To Leave the Game Easy To Use Formula

Subject:      When To Leave the Game Easy To Use Formula
From:         Jim Geary
Date:         1997/03/21
Newsgroups:   rec.gambling.poker


> >For example in a 10-20 game most people buy in for $200 where I play. I
> >buy in for $500 and have another hundred handy. If my stack drops below
> >$250 I buy another $100. That is it. Not because I believe in the validity
> >of loss limits per say, but because I do believe that that $600 loss will
> >"put me on tilt" in that game.


Hmm, if losing $600 in a 10-20 game puts you on tilt, perhaps you're
playing too high.  I've had a lot of sessions this year where I got in deeper
than 30 big bets early but still posted a winner.  My sd's are higher than
MM'S "recommended" ones posted here a coupla months ago (8.5BB@10-20,10BB@15-30),
so maybe a rock-type player is having a "worse" day when down a rack. 
Still, I always think the next hour is the first one.  I have to drive 35 miles
to  play cards so I'm usually committed to playing 8 hours come hell or
highwater. An unusual phenomenon (I think) occurs in my games, as well.  It seems
that at 1 or 2 am on Saturday, lots of loose money walks in and tags off for
the seat plugs.  Once this happens, I'm selling off my unborn children to
stay in that game.

To determine whether to continue, consult the following table:

Getting married later in the afternoon          .99
Wife(you) having baby                           .98(.94)
Wife(you) ovulating                             .82(.86)
Kid's little league game                        .40
Kid's little league game (you're the coach)     .45
Gotta work in X hours (0 < X < 8)               (.9-.1X)
Meeting with unemployment counselor             .37
Meeting with probation officer                  .34
Scheduled methadone dose                        .32
Jury duty                                       .31
Job interview                                   .21
Up a load                                       .02
Stuck a discomforting amount                    .01
Dealer shift change soon                       -.71

How to use this table:
Multiply Barrier to Stay factor x 1.5 Big Bets.
If your expectation for the next hour is greater than
this, buckle in.

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