Re: probablilty of $80/hr with SD of $260/hr

Subject:      Re: probablilty of $80/hr with SD of $260/hr.????
From:         Jim Geary 
Date:         1997/09/22
Newsgroups:   rec.gambling.poker


man@secs.net wrote:
 
> if I understand you and basic probabliity.  IN a 20/40 game a GOOD
> player can expect to win $80/hr with a SD of $260.00 per hour.
> 
> 2 standard deviations accounts for 96% of all playes so that means
> a GOOD player has a 4% or 1/25 chance of losing $440.00 in one hour.
> (260 X 2 - 80)

I wish that it was true!

These #'s are quite optimistic.  It would take a phenomenal player
to win $80/hr, and a std dev of but 6.5 big bets is also
pie in the sky.  More realistic numbers would be 1.25 bb with
SD of 9 bb.  Don't have SD tables memorized, but due to 
symmetry wouldn't it be 2%?  In any event, by my numbers,
2-4% of hours would be at -670, which doesn't seem at all
unreasonable based on my experience.

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