Date: 27 Mar 1998
From: Jim Geary
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker
Subject: 67s on the button
I've deleted the previous posts that sparked my interest, but it occurred to me last night as I fell asleep, that the analysis someone offered about popping this hand may have been a little off. With, say, 5 limpers and the blinds hero on button pops with 67s. Person analyzing this says that the odds of hitting a good flop are 1/4 and the odds of converting it are 1/3, so it's not correct to do this. However, I think this analysis mentioned something about random hands. But this self-selected field does not have random hands. I'd think that the hands hero is up against have a greater portion of overcards than random hands. This means that hero is more likely than random to hit a happy flop, as the remaining deck consists of more junk proportionately than a random deck would indicate. Additionally, the randomish hands that would dominate hero (such as Q6) on the non-dream-but-still-playable-rag flops will not be in the lineup against hero. Even if the play is slightly -EV preflop, the extra money put in preflop may tie on overcards when hero hits his dream hand, and it may well force the blinds out with hands that would dominate hero on the NDBSPR flops should they ride in for free or a discount. Plus you might steal something later on. Unlikely, but you have the button and you have given yourself some extra outs if you play well.
Last Modified 2/9/00