Date: 06/09/1999
From: Jim Geary
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker
Subject: Re: End of bankroll
Jumping in at a random point in this thread... If I was down to my last $560, I'd do something that everyone here seems to dismiss. I'd play small-field small-buyin tourneys. Why? Because I think that would maximize the chance of growing my bankroll quickly to a reasonable level. This has the apparent downside of seemingly increasing the risk of losing the $560, but who cares? Fear of bankroll dwindlage was a factor a while ago. Now the fear is being stuck in a 1-5 stud game I say. Still, this is just what I'd do, and probably not the solution for our querist. I think I could get away with this because I'm one helluva player. (Well, actually I have gotten away with this -- Jan 1990: sat down with the rent money to win the tuition money. Did.) We have yet to establish this for our hero. Was this $6k lost in the course of normal play or is that the totality of the data? What I'm getting at is that there is a difference between having a 300 unit downswing in the course of a decade of success (I had a 200+ unit downer last year) and having the entirety of one's career being losing 300 units. The latter is a lot more statistically significant. It is a lot more likely to bespeak of fundamental weakness in the game. (Bayes' theorem here: what are the odds of one bad run out of a long good run pinning a player as bad vs. the only run being a bad run doing so?) Our hero probably needs more time and experience before he can beat 10-20 games AT THE RATE NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 300 UNIT BANKROLL. He may well be better than the average player in the game, but not good enough yet that his rate and variance should be covered by a 300-unit b.r. My advice: Forget the 10-20 for now even if it hurts your pride. Take the money you make from your dayjob and use it to play 4-8. Take the opportunity to become the jedi-master of the 4-8 game. Don't worry about the bankroll or about how you'd like to be beating the 10-20 right now. Just strive to improve your game. Date: 06/05/1999 From: MurphyBret Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker Subject: End of bankroll I am in the situation that most of us dread. After playing for some time now, my bankroll is almost depleted. The result has come from the usual culprits: bad beats, poor cards, mistakes, and extreme bad performance in tournaments. I have certainly played over my allowable limits (though not very frequently), spent too much of my winnings, entered too many tournaments with too high of buy-ins, etc..... I understand my above mistakes. My question is, what do I do now? I have estimated 9% of my total bankroll left, which was roughly over $6,000. This would allow for one, or possibly a combination of the following: -drop down atleast one limit, possibly two, and gut it out -move up to a higher limit with my entire bankroll -play several smaller buy in tournaments and maybe a few medium size tournaments -other suggestions Thanks.
Last Modified 2/9/00