Date: 9/14/2000
From: Jim Geary
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker
Subject: Betting that Full House in Hold Em
On Thu, 14 Sep 2000, John McCarthy wrote:
> This has happened several several times now > > While holding JJ or lower, the board formed trips by 4th street or the > river. I bet my FH, only to be raised and called, of course one player > had pocket KK while the other won with pocket AA > > How do you bet a FH when you have the Non-nut underpair?
How? Like this (simulated forward motion).
When? You need to calculate the likelihood of your opponent's(') in fact having the over-pair given their previous actions and the possible distribution of hands that conform to these actions (using Bayesian shading) and multiplying it times the penalty if you're wrong and subtract that from the distribution of hands that you beat (or if it's not the river, the % chance of your finishing ahead minus the % chance of getting behind x the marginal penalty for falling behind) x the likelihood that you will get paid off(plus two times the infrequent frequency that they pop you back when behind(or even 3 times if you've seen their cards)) and see if this number is greater than zero, tho there is something to be said for betting when it is slightly less than zero as part of a meta-game strategy to push your opponent's away from folding when you have the over-pair tho it is more likely you should worry about the times this board comes up and neither of you have a pair, in which case you should try to plant the thought in their mind that you sometimes don't have the pair and bet anyway, otherwise they'll be able to bet with impunity when they have position, but I digress).
In other words, you have to play good poker.
Last Modified 1/18/01
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