Three Topics in Fighting Fuzzy Thinking

This post relates to topics in David Sklansky's excellent book, Fighting Fuzzy Thinking

1) Best game to play with champs who are steaming:

I sometimes play in a dealer's choice game with a few fish and the toughest players in the city. These guys are all experts at Omaha-8 and usually call it on their pick, because they believe (and I agree) that Omaha-8 is the best came for separating the weakies from their money. (A pick goes for one half hour in these games, and the button has memory). As in your hypothetical example, there are times when a tough player gets stuck a few thousand and may steam. I think that calling Omaha-8 in this situation is a mistake. This seems like the game that they can best "bring it back around," because despite some steam, they just know what a bad hand looks like and won't play it -- similar to the Jacks or Better case. I've found that the best game to call in this situation is instead Crazy Pineapple Hi-Lo Split. This truly is a game where any steamer can find something to play. Perhaps the reason you didn't mention it was that you just don't see 40-80 Pineapple games spread too often, but if you play a lot of choice games, then this is a good one to have in your repertoire.

2) If there are 100 religions, at least 99 are wrong:

Maybe. But this assumes a discrete finite set of truth similar to a 52-card deck or the laws of thermodynamics. However, questions of spirituality/religion are by definition unanswerable. The whole thing may well be a crock (I for one am just a little skeptical of L Ron Hubbard), but perhaps for reasons that don't conform to our notion of logic, God manifested himself as Jesus AND Krishna. I don't know. I just don't think the proper foundation for the application of FFT principles has been laid here.

3) 4:1 the glove was planted:

Perhaps. Better yet, how bout this: There are (as I recall) only 40 people on planet Earth who have the same DNA as the type found underneath the victims' fingernails, one of them being OJ. Using the inside-out Bayes theorem, what are the odds that one of them previously terrorized Nicole so bad that the police were called and is NOT the killer? Well, I think you know the answer.

The author's reply:

Since most religions do acept the possibility that other religions could somehow simultaneously be correct, I stand by my statement. For example, Christians believe that Jesus was the messiah and Jews believe not only that the messiah is still coming but also that Jesus is not him. They can't both be right.

Last Modified 2/9/00


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