T.P. -- Sunday, 8 March 1998, at 2:45 a.m.:
I was playing in a no-limit hold'em game...only five handed...two seemingly solid players, one solid prop...and one guy that I thought was below par. ....I am on small blind this time. Big blind is solid player, UTG is below par player. I get dealt A3, unsuited. UTG makes it $10...I call, big blind calls. I have $1000, big blind has more and UTG has about $800.
Flop comes 10c 3c 3s.
I check, bb checks, utg bets $40.
What would you do here?
I raise $40. bb folds. UTG raises me all in....$700 or so.
What would you do?
I saw him hit a set of 6s in same position, and he came out betting $100 into a $50 pot. I also saw hime bet $400 into a $200 pot with a jack high flush on the turn. (he got rivered on the end as someone hit a boat).
So I figured "this guy is not afraid to bet a good/great hand...maybe he doesn't have the idea of trying to trap a player...this seems like it would be consistent with someone who does not play that well." So I put him on 10 10. I figure he can't have 10 3, since he called UTG, and he can't bet $700 into me with a pair, even if it was Aces since there are two 3s on board (I didn't think he was savvy enough to make this play)....so the only thing he could have was 10 10 (unless he called with K3 suited, or something like that).
Anyway, given the flop of 10 3 3, the odds of him having 10 10 is .2% (3/47 times 2/46) ...the odds of him having X3 is 2% (1/47). So I am a 10 to 1 favorite to be ahead...but he did bet $700 into a $100 pot.
I'm not sure if it was the right play or not...but I folded...one hand later, he revealed to me he had 10 10 (although, obviously he could've been lying).
What do you think of the fold? Would you have called?
(assume the having or not having the $700 is not going to change my life in any meaningful way).
Jim Geary -- Tuesday, 10 March 1998, at 4:59 p.m.:
Well, I would've called. That seems to me the situation you wait for in no-limit. Opponent moves all in while you hold a hidden monster. If you can't go bust on a hand like that, I don't think you're playing right. I just can't imagine anyone with 10's full hammering that pot like you described. Bet's the flop (very unlikely), you play back, he jams instead of calling with position to let you hang yourself on the turn? Impossible. Him saying he had the tens tilts my thinking that way even more so, if that is mathematically possible.
Here are some of the hands he more likely held in my guess of order of likelihood:
Ax of clubs. (assumes your A isn't C)
Completely nothing.
A bad ten.
Two clubs, not ace.
A good ten.
A pair between 4's and 9's
A pair > tens.
A worse case trey.
Okay, tens.
Another ace trey.
My inability to correctly calculate the number of possiblities that this list enumerates is well documented here, but I already got tens at less than 1%.
Now, throw in the Bayesian spin "given that he played the hand this way," and we're talking celestial unlikelihood.
I'll wire the money and let you keep half if I'm right, bearing the full downside risk myself.
Last Modified 2/9/00