Posted by Double T on Monday, 18 May 1998, at 12:11 p.m.
The following took place during a no-limit Hold-em tournament. I would be interested in comments regarding this play.
Background/Structure
The tournament started with about 45 players and was down to two tables, with 6 and 7 players each. The blinds doubled every 20 minutes and were currently at 200/100 and about to go up to 400/200 in a couple of hands. They were paying 4 places, with the payouts at $1800/900/500/400 (or something close to that split.) I had played in this tournament before and typically figured you would need at least $2000 in tourney chips at the final table in order to have a decent chance to survive the blinds and finish in the money.
The Play
The average stack size at my table was $1500, with the big stack about $3000. There was one big stack at the other table close to $10,000. I have $1400 in chips and figure that I have to make a move in the next 30 minutes(15-20 hands maximum) or get blinded out. As mentioned, the blinds are $200/100. I am to the left of an under-the-gun player and pick up JJ. The UTG player (solid, not tricky) pushes all-in for about $1800 before I get the chance. I tak a little time and consider the following:
1. He also needs to make a move and would probably bring it in for a smaller raise with AA or KK and try to trap someone on the flop, or possible even suck the aggressive big stack in before the flop. So I definitely rule out AA or KK.
2. Picking up the blinds at this stage is also crucial, so an all-in move with AK, AQ, or even AJ would not be out-of-line. Of course, I wouldn't mind taking my roughly 50/50 chances against this group of hands at this stage of the game.
3. In my mind, an all-in move also would be appropriate with even a small pair, since probably only the big stack would call without a premium pair, or possible AK. Of course I love my chances against a smaller pair, but somehow feel that it is not his most likely holding give his position.
4. What about QQ? Yes, this guy would also make this bet with QQ, so there is one hand I really fear. I quickly handicap him as follows: 50% AK AQ or AJ; 35% QQ; 20% small/middle pair; remote 5% AA or KK. So, I call, but not with a great degree of confidence.
Epilogue
I hit a Jack on the flop (two kings also came, but no Q or A). I graciously turn over my Jacks-full-of-Kings. The UTG guy mucks his hand, claims he had Queens and proceeds to grumble for the next half hour about my terrible call and his bad beat. (I should have made him show down first, but felt a little charitable.) I agree that assuming he told the truth about his QQ, it was a bad beat. But was it a terrible call?
Posted by Jim Geary on Tuesday, 19 May 1998
I don't like the call. You don't have to "make a stand." You still have enough money for four or five laps. Tho you may not be in the comfort zone (8 or more laps of blinds constitutes that zone for myself), you certainly don't have a gun to your head. If you had but enough money to see just one round of blinds, then it's an easy call.
But with two tables to go, perhaps other people (like your current opponent) will make enough stands for you to weasel your way up the ladder without as much risk. Calling all-in is generally a weak play in multiple-place tournaments. If you're the one on the attack, it is a much better play, tho I'm not saying I would've made it here if I was first in here. The problem with calling all-in is that you've eliminated your best tournament out: opponents folding without a showdown. The key to doing well in tournaments is creating these outs. See my post lower down with the title "Your example was jigged," in the "long-time 2+2 error" thread. Attack good. Call bad.
Your hand may well be 50-50 to win the hand, but there are better spots with worse hands than calling an all-in aggressor with such a vulnerable hand. Find those spots.
Last Modified 2/9/00